The war has come again. The guns are drawn and ready to fire. Troops are high on adrenaline and ready to charge. This is a life-and-death situation. This is the end. This is the USA 2024 presidential election.
The 2024 USA Election is nearing again. This will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election. They are famously set to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.
Voters in each state and the district of Columbia will choose electors of the Electoral College. They will then elect a president and vice president for a term of four years.
In lieu of the current election season, the 2024 presidential election polls are out. So, stay put and learn the outcome of these high-on drama elections.
Before diving into the election polls, first let’s set a background for the 2024 presidential election.
Nominees for the USA 2024 presidential election
The two prominent and important nominees for the seat of president are Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. However, it was not always Kamala Harris; in the beginning of the nomination, it was Joe Biden.
Joe Biden is a member of the Democratic Party who is also the incumbent president of the USA. He initially ran for re-election and became the party’s presumptive nominee; he faced little to no opposition. However, his performance in the June 2024 presidential debate intensified concerns about his health and especially his age.
This led to calls within the party for him to leave the presidential race. He withdrew on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. Biden’s withdrawal made him the first eligible incumbent president since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968 who chose not to run for re-election. He also became the first one to withdraw after securing enough delegates to win the nomination.
Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party’s nominee for the 2024 USA Election on August 5. With this, she became the first nominee who did not participate in the primaries since Hubert Humphrey, also in 1968.
Harris then selected Tim Walz for her running mate. He is the governor of Minnesota. Kamala Harris’s mother was an endocrinologist born in India. However, her father is an economist born in Jamaica. In California, she won elections as a prosecutor by leaning to the right on criminal justice issues. She also appealed to Democrats and was elected as the state’s attorney general in 2010.
Since she came to Washington, first as a senator in 2017, Ms. Harris has been most effective at debates and hearings, where her skills as a litigator are on display. Kamala Harris is a creature of institutional politics. She is not a visionary or an ideologue, and this has made her struggle to define herself on a national stage.
Her presidential run in 2020 crashed badly. As vice president, she is tied to the Biden administration’s record. which is unpopular despite the major legislation it passed to onshore chip manufacturing and invest in green energy.
On the other hand, the Republican Party nominee is Donald Trump. He is a predecessor of Joe Biden. He is re-running for a second election in a non-consecutive term after losing to Biden in 2020.
Trump also faced little to no opposition in the Republican preliminary. Hence, Trump was nominated during the 2024 Republican National Convention along with his running mate, JD Vance. He is an Ohio senator. Trump’s USA 2024 presidential election campaign has been deeply criticized by everyone from legal experts to historians.
Political scientists blame him for invoking violent rhetoric and authoritarian statements. Trump is also infamous for making false and misleading statements. This has promoted conspiracy theories and has continued to repeat false claims that the 2020 election was rigged and stolen from him. This repetition is controversial, as these claims of the 2020 election caused the January 6 Capitol attack.
He became the first former president to be convicted of a crime. In 2023 and 2024, Trump was found liable and guilty in civil and criminal proceedings, respectively, for sexual abuse, defamation, financial fraud, and falsifying business records. He also survived an assassination attempt on July 13, 2024, when a gunman shot Mr. Trump at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania.
The bullet grazed the former president’s ear. But otherwise, leaving him unharmed. However, a bystander was killed. After this horrific event, Mr. Trump, for a brief time, seemed a changed candidate. He tried to present himself as a unifier in a speech at the Republican convention in Milwaukee. But he went back to his past ways quickly, throwing insults at his political opponents.
The USA presidential election for 2024 will take place at the same time as elections for the U.S. Senate, House, gubernatorial, and state legislatures. Key swing states for the presidential election include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Leading campaign issues are abortion, border security and immigration, climate change, democracy, the economy, education, foreign policy, healthcare, and LGBT rights. The winners are scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025, as the 47th president and 50th vice president of the United States.
2024 Presidential Election Polls
We are not in the heat of the 2024 USA presidential election’s campaign. Everyone is asking the question, Who is leading the polls? Is it Harris or Trump? By all standards, the contest between Donald J. Trump and Kamala Harris is still quite close.
According to the national polling average, Harris exceeds 49% in comparison to Trump, who is at 46%. In Wisconsin, Harris is again 49% ahead of Trump, who is at 47%. In Michigan, Harris is 48% and Trump is 46%. Pennsylvania is seeing Harris as the winner with 49%. Trump here is at 48%. In Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona, they are battling with the same rage as they are both leading with 48%.
In 2024 Presidential Election Polls, both Harris and Trum have states that they can mostly count on to get at least 200 electoral votes. However, to win the seat of election, they need to get 270 electoral votes. So, the game depends on those 70 electoral votes. Also, the polls may change between now and Election Day.
They can’t be expected to exactly match the final results. But if Kamala Harris won every state where she is currently leading, she would easily reach 270 electoral votes.
Trump could easily win over Kamala Harris if he gains ground in key states. There is a chance that polls might be underestimating him. A shift or polling miss in his favor would not be uncommon, though of course that is not guaranteed.
Polls in seven key battleground states (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona) are very close. So, if one manages to flip just a state or two could lead to the candidate’s victory.
Many outcomes are possible: Since the results in states often move together and polls often miss in the same direction, it would take only a small shift—or polling miss—in either candidate’s favor to turn a narrow win in the Electoral College into a victory with more than 300 electoral votes.
So, this raises a question: how wrong might the 2024 presidential election polls be?
You see, it is normal for polls to not match the final results. Sometimes they differ by considerable amounts. For example, during the 2016 and 2020 USA presidential elections, the election polls underestimated Trump. On the other hand, in 2012 they underestimated the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama. Again, in 2022, Democrats outperformed polling averages in several key midterm races.
Past polling misses can give a sense of the magnitude by which current averages could be wrong. However, they are not a guarantee of which way today’s polls may be off.
Conclusion
As the USA 2024 presidential election approaches, the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump for the seat of president remains highly competitive. Both candidates are vying for the nation’s support.
The latest 2024 presidential election polls show a tight contest between the nominees. Harris is clearly leading in several key background states. However, it has been proven in the past that election polls may not always reflect the final outcome.
In both the 2016 and 2020 elections, polls underestimate Trump's influence. There is a possibility that this might happen again in the 2024 presidential election.
The 2024 USA election will depend on the seven crucial states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona. Harris and Trump need to secure at least 270 electoral votes to win. Here, even a small shift can change the outcome for the candidates.
Both candidates have states they can count on for electoral votes. The battle for the remaining electoral votes will be decisive, as they can determine the next president. As the citizens of the USA watch in hope, the 2024 presidential election polls continue to fluctuate. This has built more anticipation and uncertainty about what promises to be a closely fought election.
The stakes are for the USA 2024 presidential election. However, it is the future that will tell who emerges as victor.
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